Het risico op een nieuwe recessie in de VS neemt significant toe, maar een 'double-dip' is niet het meest waarschijnlijke scenario. Dat schrijft Peter Hooper van Deutsche Bank in een genuanceerd analistenrapport, waaruit we delen publiceren.
“De vrees voor een double-dip recessie en het risico van deflatie zijn aanzienlijk zijn gestegen. Terwijl onze eigen baseline prognose nog niet van een nieuwe recessie uitgaat, zijn de neerwaartse risico's duidelijk toegenomen”, aldus Hooper in het op 1 september gepubliceerde rapport 'Update on recession/deflation risk in the US'.
‘Downside risks are rising’
"Economic and financial developments in recent months have generally been disappointing in the US, and expectations for an economic recovery that were sluggish to begin with are being marked down. The anticipated handoff from inventory swing and fiscal stimulus to growth driven by private final demand has not yet occurred successfully as consumer spending remains cautious, business spending growth appears to be slowing, and construction activity in general is likely to remain dormant for some time to come. Pent-up consumer demand is still expected to carry the day in a historically weak economic recovery, but downside risks are rising.”
“Hiring remains disappointingly weak for a number of reasons that seem unlikely to disappear any time soon, and the scope for government policy to stimulate aggregate demand seems much diminished. Indeed, risks of fiscal contraction under current policies grows as the expiration of the Bush tax cuts approaches.”
‘Risk of serious double dip reduced’
“Most leading indicators of economic activity have softened, and some point to significant increases in the probability of an economic downturn ahead. We judge the risk of a serious double dip recession to be much reduced by the fact that discretionary spending (on durable goods and structures) has already been cut to the bone, but that does not mean that deflation risk is de minimis any longer.”
“At this point, the balance is between moderately above trend growth, with unemployment headed lower, and a more sluggish positive growth outcome, with unemployment headed higher. The latter outcome could weaken the housing market and rattle inflation expectations enough to put core inflation back on a downward trend and significantly increase the risks of dipping into deflation. It is this risk that will get the Fed into action again if the below-trend growth scenario begins to appear the more likely outcome."
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